NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Jiarui Liu

Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics
University of Chicago
1126 E 59th Street
United States
Chicago, IL 60637

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Institutional Affiliation: University of Chicago

NBER Working Papers and Publications

April 2020Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19
with Ali Horta├žsu, Timothy Schwieg: w27028
We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the US during the first half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infections across US regions and the number of travelers to these regions from the epicenter, along with the results of an early randomized testing study in Iceland. Using our estimates of the number of unreported infections, which are substantially larger than the number of reported infections, we also provide estimates for the infection fatality rate using data on reported COVID-19 fatalities from U.S. counties.

Published: Ali Horta├žsu & Jiarui Liu & Timothy Schwieg, 2020. "Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19," Journal of Econometrics, .

 
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